Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
New York, NY...Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Albuquerque, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...Roswell, NM...South Valley, NM...
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Detroit, MI...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...
SPC AC 011627
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST AND
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TN VALLEY AND
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL NM...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN STATES
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...
Isolated to scattered severe storms, primarily producing wind
damage, will be possible this afternoon across the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic States, along with parts of the southern Appalachians
and Tennessee Valley. Storms with severe hail and wind may also
occur over parts of the southern High Plains late afternoon into
...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic states...
Showers and widely scattered storms are ongoing from NH to western
PA in association with a lead mid-level disturbance downstream of a
shortwave trough over the central Great Lakes. This lead impulse
should track east across New England today. Cloud breaks are evident
ahead of this morning convective activity and diabatic heating will
result in a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE reaching
750-1500 J/kg. Storms should expand in coverage and intensity during
the mid to late afternoon. While stronger mid-level southwesterlies
will lag to the west, 35-45 kt 500-mb flow will be prevalent.
Low-level winds are progged to strengthen from the Hudson Valley
eastward. In this region, the setup should yield a couple supercells
embedded within multicell clusters, with primary hazards being
damaging winds and a tornado or two. Farther south, multicells
should dominate with damaging winds as the main hazard.
...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
A moisture-rich air mass characterized by 70s surface dew points is
in the process of destabilizing with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg
expected by late afternoon. A remnant MCV over the Mid-South should
track east and promote scattered storm development over the TN
Valley through the afternoon. On the southern periphery of moderate
mid/upper-level westerlies (25-35 kt at 500 mb), a few multicell
clusters may form and congeal towards the southern Appalachians with
a primary risk of damaging winds. The Slight risk area has been
shifted north to account for the most likely area of storm
development centered on eastern TN.
...Southern High Plains...
50s to lower 60s surface dew points are prevalent across the eastern
two-thirds of NM amid weak low-level easterlies. Robust diabatic
heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Despite relatively weak flow
aloft, directional veering with height should result in effective
shear of 25-30 kt. Widely scattered storms will develop off the
higher terrain and may consolidate into a cluster or two across
eastern NM and adjacent portions of west TX this evening. The risk
for large hail and severe wind gusts appears sufficient to warrant
an upgrade to Cat 2/Slight.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z