Jul 3, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 3 16:12:40 UTC 2017 (20170703 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170703 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170703 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 15,355 1,183,330 Oklahoma City, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...Moore, OK...Enid, OK...
SLIGHT 43,957 1,197,613 Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Stillwater, OK...Shawnee, OK...Dodge City, KS...
MARGINAL 469,933 37,318,343 Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170703 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170703 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 15,402 1,194,455 Oklahoma City, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...Moore, OK...Enid, OK...
15 % 43,768 1,175,327 Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Stillwater, OK...Shawnee, OK...Dodge City, KS...
5 % 468,844 36,377,113 Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170703 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 47,126 1,756,261 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...Moore, OK...
5 % 411,532 27,364,730 Columbus, OH...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Pittsburgh, PA...Lincoln, NE...
   SPC AC 031612

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 03 2017

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN KS...MUCH OF OK...AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN IN
   INTO MUCH OF PA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   TN/MS/AL...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions
   of the central and southern Plains, especially over portions of
   southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Isolated marginally severe storms are
   possible across the Ohio Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic,
   from Arkansas into Middle Tennessee, and over parts of the
   Carolinas.

   ...KS/OK...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a convectively-aided MCV over extreme
   southwest KS.  This feature is embedded in northwest flow aloft, and
   will move into OK this afternoon and evening.  Ahead of the system,
   southeasterly low level winds will help to maintain 60s and lower
   70s dewpoints along a corridor from northwest into central OK. 
   Forecast soundings also show steep mid level lapse rates and the
   potential for strong afternoon CAPE.  Current indications are that
   thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon near the MCV and
   move/build southeastward.  Strong consensus exists among 12z CAM
   solutions for a bowing complex of storms to spread across the ENH
   region this evening, posing a risk of damaging winds and some hail.

   ...Eastern TX Panhandle...
   Most model solutions indicate that the initial storms over northwest
   OK will build southwestward along the effective surface dryline.  It
   is unclear how much augmentation to mid level winds will occur on
   the southern edge of the MVC over KS/OK.  However, if sufficient
   flow develops, a few supercells will be possible with a risk of
   large hail and damaging winds.

   ...IN to PA...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a cold front
   sagging into this region.  Deep layer shear is sufficient for a few
   organized storms.  However, mid level lapse rates are not
   particularly steep, low level winds are weak, and CAPE is not
   forecast to become very strong.  The strongest storms may produce
   some hail or gusty winds, but the overall threat appears marginal.

   ...MS/TN/AL...
   A remnant MCV over AR will continue to track slowly eastward today
   across western TN.  Scattered thunderstorms will continue to occur
   ahead of this system, with an increase in intensity and coverage
   later this afternoon.  Ample CAPE and forcing associated with the
   MCV may promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging
   wind gusts.

   ...Carolinas...
   Strong instability is forecast to develop over parts of SC and
   southern/eastern NC this afternoon, resulting is a corridor of
   scattered thunderstorm development.  Weak but sufficient cyclonic
   flow aloft coupled with a decaying MCV over GA may aid in the
   development a isolated severe storms capable of gusty/damaging wind
   gusts.

   ..Hart/Smith.. 07/03/2017

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