Jul 4, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 4 16:31:43 UTC 2017 (20170704 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170704 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170704 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 28,185 489,821 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
MARGINAL 310,953 17,174,233 Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Lubbock, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170704 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170704 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 28,917 490,898 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
5 % 313,707 17,131,846 Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Lubbock, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170704 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 27,350 483,322 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
5 % 208,874 2,830,167 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
   SPC AC 041631

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2017

   Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
   MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AND NORTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms, some accompanied by strong wind gusts and
   hail, will be possible this afternoon into early evening over parts
   of MN/ND, with an isolated risk in the central and northern Great
   Plains, portions of the southern Plains, the Mid-South, and southern
   Appalachians eastward on either side of the North Carolina/Virginia
   border. Strong storms may also develop late tonight over southern
   Oklahoma.

   ...ND/SD/MN...
   Water vapor loops show an upper trough moving across
   Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with an associated surface cold front moving
   across ND.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along this
   front later today, affecting parts of eastern ND/northwest MN as
   well as eastern SD.  Forecast soundings suggest moderate CAPE, but
   relatively weak vertical shear profiles.  Given the favorable
   thermodynamics, a few of the storms may produce hail and gusty
   winds.  The area most likely to see organized severe storms will be
   over northwest MN and eastern ND late this afternoon.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   North-northwesterly mid-level winds are present today over eastern
   NM and adjacent parts of CO/KS/TX.  Thunderstorms are expected to
   form this afternoon over the higher terrain near the CO border and
   build southeastward through the evening hours.  Forecast soundings
   show weak low-level winds.  However, full heating will result in a
   deep and well-mixed boundary layer with inverted-v profiles favoring
   the risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in stronger cells.  Outflow
   may congeal and grow upscale this evening, with a related increase
   in wind potential.

   ...Mid MS Valley...
   A remnant MCV is moving across northeast OK.  This system is
   weakening, but some enhancement to low-level convergence will likely
   remain through the day.  Strong instability is likely to form in the
   southeastern flank of the MCV, resulting in scattered thunderstorms
   over parts of AR/northeast MS/west TN/southern MO.  The strongest
   cells may produce gusty winds.

   ...VA/Carolinas...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop once again this
   afternoon and evening over parts of VA and the Carolinas.  Vertical
   shear is weak, but strong CAPE values and ample moisture may result
   in locally gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.

   ...Southern OK/Northeast TX late tonight...
   Most model solutions indicate a band of thunderstorms will form
   after midnight over southern OK and build southward into north TX by
   05/12z.  Despite the unfavorable time of day, forecast soundings
   suggest the potential for steep mid level lapse rates and strong
   CAPE.  Given the robust signals in several 12z CAM solutions, will
   re-introduce marginal severe probabilities for parts of this area.

   ..Hart/Mosier.. 07/04/2017

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