Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 041631
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2017
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AND NORTH CAROLINA...
Scattered thunderstorms, some accompanied by strong wind gusts and
hail, will be possible this afternoon into early evening over parts
of MN/ND, with an isolated risk in the central and northern Great
Plains, portions of the southern Plains, the Mid-South, and southern
Appalachians eastward on either side of the North Carolina/Virginia
border. Strong storms may also develop late tonight over southern
Water vapor loops show an upper trough moving across
Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with an associated surface cold front moving
across ND. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along this
front later today, affecting parts of eastern ND/northwest MN as
well as eastern SD. Forecast soundings suggest moderate CAPE, but
relatively weak vertical shear profiles. Given the favorable
thermodynamics, a few of the storms may produce hail and gusty
winds. The area most likely to see organized severe storms will be
over northwest MN and eastern ND late this afternoon.
...Southern High Plains...
North-northwesterly mid-level winds are present today over eastern
NM and adjacent parts of CO/KS/TX. Thunderstorms are expected to
form this afternoon over the higher terrain near the CO border and
build southeastward through the evening hours. Forecast soundings
show weak low-level winds. However, full heating will result in a
deep and well-mixed boundary layer with inverted-v profiles favoring
the risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in stronger cells. Outflow
may congeal and grow upscale this evening, with a related increase
in wind potential.
...Mid MS Valley...
A remnant MCV is moving across northeast OK. This system is
weakening, but some enhancement to low-level convergence will likely
remain through the day. Strong instability is likely to form in the
southeastern flank of the MCV, resulting in scattered thunderstorms
over parts of AR/northeast MS/west TN/southern MO. The strongest
cells may produce gusty winds.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon and evening over parts of VA and the Carolinas. Vertical
shear is weak, but strong CAPE values and ample moisture may result
in locally gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.
...Southern OK/Northeast TX late tonight...
Most model solutions indicate a band of thunderstorms will form
after midnight over southern OK and build southward into north TX by
05/12z. Despite the unfavorable time of day, forecast soundings
suggest the potential for steep mid level lapse rates and strong
CAPE. Given the robust signals in several 12z CAM solutions, will
re-introduce marginal severe probabilities for parts of this area.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z