Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Minot, ND...Moorhead, MN...Elk River, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Green Bay, WI...Billings, MT...Rochester, MN...
SPC AC 051616
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2017
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind damage will be
possible from parts of North Dakota, into Minnesota this afternoon
and evening. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the northern Plains, northern Great Lakes, northern Rockies
and southern Plains to the Carolinas.
The primary band of westerlies is across Canada today, with the
southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over portions of ND/MN/WI.
Full sunshine is occurring in this region, with dewpoints in the mid
60s to lower 70s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg.
Forcing for ascent is weak, and water vapor loop suggests only
subtle upstream features that might aid in convective initiation.
This suggests that overall coverage of storms will be low.
Nevertheless, forecast soundings show thermodynamic and shear
parameters favorable for organized/supercell storms later today.
Large hail is likely the main threat, as storms may remain isolated
and maintain discrete mode. However, damaging winds or a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.
Models remain consistent that scattered showers and thunderstorms
will form this afternoon over parts of eastern ID, southwest MT, and
northeast WY. Large scale forcing is weak, with terrain serving as
the primary initiating focus. Sufficiently strong westerly flow
aloft and steep low level lapse rates will promote a risk of
damaging winds and hail in the stronger cells.
...TX to the Carolinas...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along
a long corridor from central TX, across the ArkLaMiss region and TN
Valley, into the Carolinas. Have focused the MRGL risk area to
where strongest daytime heating and CAPE values are forecast.
Relatively weak steering flow suggest storms will be rather
disorganized, but will pose a risk of locally gusty winds in the
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