Jul 5, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 5 16:16:34 UTC 2017 (20170705 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170705 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170705 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 57,889 1,486,808 Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Minot, ND...Moorhead, MN...Andover, MN...
MARGINAL 472,982 40,734,482 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170705 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 56,871 1,365,453 Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Minot, ND...Moorhead, MN...Elk River, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170705 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 57,553 1,366,284 Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Minot, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...
5 % 473,448 40,819,963 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170705 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 58,734 1,560,876 Fargo, ND...St. Cloud, MN...Minot, ND...Moorhead, MN...Andover, MN...
5 % 212,363 7,303,639 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Green Bay, WI...Billings, MT...Rochester, MN...
   SPC AC 051616

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Wed Jul 05 2017

   Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
   TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind damage will be
   possible from parts of North Dakota, into Minnesota this afternoon
   and evening. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across
   parts of the northern Plains, northern Great Lakes, northern Rockies
   and southern Plains to the Carolinas.

   ...ND/MN...
   The primary band of westerlies is across Canada today, with the
   southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over portions of ND/MN/WI.
   Full sunshine is occurring in this region, with dewpoints in the mid
   60s to lower 70s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. 
   Forcing for ascent is weak, and water vapor loop suggests only
   subtle upstream features that might aid in convective initiation. 
   This suggests that overall coverage of storms will be low. 
   Nevertheless, forecast soundings show thermodynamic and shear
   parameters favorable for organized/supercell storms later today. 
   Large hail is likely the main threat, as storms may remain isolated
   and maintain discrete mode.  However, damaging winds or a brief
   tornado cannot be ruled out.

   ...Northern Rockies...
   Models remain consistent that scattered showers and thunderstorms
   will form this afternoon over parts of eastern ID, southwest MT, and
   northeast WY.  Large scale forcing is weak, with terrain serving as
   the primary initiating focus.  Sufficiently strong westerly flow
   aloft and steep low level lapse rates will promote a risk of
   damaging winds and hail in the stronger cells.

   ...TX to the Carolinas...
   Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along
   a long corridor from central TX, across the ArkLaMiss region and TN
   Valley, into the Carolinas.  Have focused the MRGL risk area to
   where strongest daytime heating and CAPE values are forecast. 
   Relatively weak steering flow suggest storms will be rather
   disorganized, but will pose a risk of locally gusty winds in the
   strongest cores.

   ..Hart/Mosier.. 07/05/2017

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