Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 071619
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEST/OH
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...WI...AND NORTHEAST...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAROLINAS...
Severe storms producing scattered swaths of damaging winds and large
hail are likely over the Midwest centered on portions of Indiana and
Ohio this afternoon.
Strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of northern IN and
northwest OH. Robust diabatic heating is underway to the south of
this activity, including in the wake of weak outflow near the upper
OH River associated with decaying convection approaching the
northern/central Appalachians. With widespread lower 70s surface dew
points overlapping the eastern periphery of steep mid-level lapse
rates around 7 degree C/km from 700-500 mb as sampled by 12Z
Davenport and Lincoln RAOBs, large buoyancy will likely develop at
peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg across IL/IN into
While stronger mid-level northwesterlies associated with a shortwave
trough near the MN/ON border will lag to the northwest of the
Midwest storms, moderate west-northwesterlies will be sufficient for
organized structures, including embedded supercells and bowing line
segments. Multiple MCSs appear probable with the ongoing activity
spreading southeast across OH, with additional storms likely forming
westward in IN near the intersection of early-day outflow and a
southeastward-progressing cold front. Given the dominant
linear/cluster modes, damaging winds appear to be the primary
hazard, with severe hail a secondary threat.
...Central High Plains...
Between a southeast Canada trough and Great Basin anticyclone,
modest mid-level northwesterlies will prevail, with a couple
embedded disturbances topping the ridge over the northern Rockies.
Isolated storms will develop over the Rockies and Black Hills by
late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-35 kt may yield a few
organized storms as they spread onto the adjacent plains. Sporadic
occurrences of hail and wind are probable, but confidence is low in
identifying a more concentrated area of storm development for a
Slight risk this outlook.
Generally isolated strong to severe storms mainly with damaging wind
and some hail will be possible across the Northeast, Ozark Plateau,
Carolinas, and Wisconsin.
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