New York, NY...Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 231626
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-ATLANTIC TO
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST...
Widely scattered severe storms producing damaging winds and some
hail are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes
regions late this afternoon and evening.
...Mid-Atlantic States to Great Lakes/Midwest...
Overall setup appears rather nebulous, but have maintained Slight
risk in an arc surrounding remnant outflows and ongoing convection
over IN/OH to the southern Appalachians. Pockets of stronger heating
to the north and east of this activity should yield weak to moderate
buoyancy amid modest 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6 degree C/km as
sampled by several 12Z RAOBs. A broad swath of moderate mid-level
westerlies to the south of the Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough
will support 30-35 kt effective shear. Ongoing convection will
increase in coverage this afternoon as it spreads east, with
multicell clusters and transient supercell structures possibly
developing. Strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail should be
the main hazards.
In the wake of ongoing convection over the Midwest, isolated to
scattered storms should redevelop late today into the evening,
possibly producing localized damaging winds and hail.
...OK to Carolinas...
Hot temperatures and rich boundary-layer moisture will yield large
buoyancy south of remnant outflow boundaries. While tropospheric
winds will be light, scattered storms developing along these
boundaries will pose a risk for sporadic downbursts into this
evening. See MCD 1407 for further discussion of the threat in the
southern Appalachians vicinity.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z