Aug 23, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 23 16:14:25 UTC 2017 (20170823 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170823 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170823 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 53,203 8,093,246 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170823 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170823 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 53,711 8,157,474 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170823 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 231614

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

   Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms may impact parts of the southern
   Mid-Atlantic region and eastern Carolinas this afternoon and
   evening. Gusty, damaging winds will be the main threat.

   ...Carolinas to Southeast Virginia...

   Weak large-scale height falls will spread across the central
   Appalachians into the Middle Atlantic region this afternoon along
   southern fringes of OH Valley upper trough. Pre-frontal air mass is
   warming rapidly through the mid 80s across the Carolinas into
   southeast VA and low-level lapse rates should steepen sufficiently
   for parcels to breach their convective temperatures by 18z. Latest
   vis satellite imagery displays a substantial cumulus field over
   southeast VA, with deeper updrafts along the advancing front, and
   scattered thunderstorms should evolve along the front over southern
   VA then spread/develop into eastern NC as the afternoon progresses.
   Early-morning sounding data exhibits very high PW environment with
   poor mid-level lapse rates. While modest westerly flow aloft will
   skirt the VA/NC border region, enhancing the prospect for some
   organization, thermodynamic profiles along with forecast shear
   suggest 5% severe probs adequately reflect the overall severe wind
   potential with afternoon/evening convection.

   ..Darrow/Coniglio.. 08/23/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z