Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 011619
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Fri Sep 01 2017
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN SC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NC...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN
TN INTO SOUTHEASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREAS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging
wind gusts are expected over the Carolinas and southern Appalachians
vicinity this afternoon into this evening.
...Eastern TN/KY to the Carolinas through this evening...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Harvey will continue moving
northeastward today over TN/KY while weakening slowly. East of the
circulation center, a belt of stronger low-midlevel southwesterly
flow (30-50 kt per 12z soundings and recent VWPs) extends over the
southern Appalachians and Carolina piedmont. At the surface, a
surface trough/weak cold front will move slowly eastward across
northern GA through the afternoon, while some consolidation of a
baroclinic zone should occur across central NC. Broken bands of
convection will form late this morning into this afternoon along and
east of the surface trough, and the storms will spread northeastward
across the Carolinas into this evening.
There will be a narrow window of opportunity for rotating storms by
midday or early afternoon from northeastern TN into eastern KY, near
and just north of the surface triple point where limited surface
heating may occur in small cloud breaks. The more substantial
supercell/tornado threat area will be farther east into the
Carolinas this afternoon, where warm sector storms interact with the
east-west oriented front across NC. Here, low-level shear and
hodograph curvature will be enhanced (within and just east of the
belt of stronger low-midlevel flow), along the northern edge of the
warm sector where surface temperatures warm into the 80s with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s F.
...Eastern ND/northwestern MN this afternoon/evening...
A lead shortwave trough is passing over the eastern Dakotas as of
late morning, with a band of rain/weak convection preceding the
wave. Some destabilization may occur in cloud breaks this afternoon
across eastern ND, though storm initiation will have to rely on only
shallow ascent along a surface cold front late this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear and buoyancy could become
sufficient for supercells, thus will maintain a MRGL area to reflect
the conditional severe threat.
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