Oct 8, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 8 16:18:17 UTC 2017 (20171008 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171008 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171008 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 57,224 7,981,750 Charlotte, NC...Macon, GA...Asheville, NC...Gastonia, NC...Concord, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171008 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 33,680 6,278,650 Charlotte, NC...Macon, GA...Asheville, NC...Gastonia, NC...Concord, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171008 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 57,127 7,959,322 Charlotte, NC...Macon, GA...Asheville, NC...Gastonia, NC...Concord, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171008 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 081618

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

   Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN
   GA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A brief tornado or two and localized damaging thunderstorm winds
   will be possible this afternoon from parts of Georgia into the
   western Carolinas.

   ...Southeast...
   As tropical depression Nate weakens, the belt of stronger low-level
   winds will become centered across the southern Appalachians by 00Z.
   Weak diabatic heating will remain confined to the south and east of
   ongoing rain bands across eastern AL/western GA and the FL
   Panhandle. This should promote some overlap of modestly enlarged
   low-level hodographs where surface temperatures warm into the upper
   70s and 80s. A north/south-oriented convective band has recently
   developed across south-central GA and this should move to the
   east-northeast through the afternoon. The setup should support risks
   of a brief tornado and locally strong thunderstorm wind gusts.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 10/08/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z