St. Louis, MO...Evansville, IN...St. Charles, MO...Jonesboro, AR...Owensboro, KY...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
67,482
6,097,362
St. Louis, MO...Evansville, IN...St. Charles, MO...Jonesboro, AR...Owensboro, KY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 100546
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat with strong wind gusts is forecast to
develop this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley region and
spread east into the lower Ohio Valley during the evening.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous shortwave trough located over KS/OK this morning will
quickly move northeast into the Great Lakes and weaken during the
period. A cold front over the lower Missouri Valley extending south
into eastern TX will push eastward across the MS Valley and into the
lower OH Valley after dark. Farther west, a powerful shortwave
trough will move into the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies.
...Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...
A reservoir of rich low-level moisture was located over the lower to
mid MS Valley region early this morning. Despite only modest
low-level response to the approaching 70-kt southwesterly 500 mb
speed max, an elongated area of low pressure over the MO Ozarks will
move into the lower OH Valley. Upstream upper-air data over the
southern Great Plains Monday evening showed relatively warm
mid-level temperatures (-6 to -7 degrees C at 500 mb) with stunted
700-500 lapse rates (around 6 degrees C/km) as a result.
A few general thunderstorms are possible during the morning/midday
hours across the MS Valley but the primary convective development
will focus near the front by mid afternoon near/west of the MS
river. Thunderstorms will likely intensify and pose a risk for
isolated strong to locally severe gusts as cellular storms organize
into one or more bands. Forecast soundings show veering but only
modest southwesterly flow in the lowest 3 km AGL---thereby limiting
low-level storm organization potential and perhaps a greater risk
for damaging winds. Ample forcing for ascent within a moist
boundary layer will likely act to sustain thunderstorm activity well
into the evening across the lower OH Valley before weak buoyancy
leads to a diminishing risk for strong storms.
..Smith/Leitman.. 10/10/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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