Oct 11, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 11 05:34:01 UTC 2017 (20171011 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171011 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171011 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171011 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171011 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171011 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110534

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No organized severe thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous
   United States today and tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough over the Great Lakes this morning will weaken as
   it moves into southern New England during the period.  A cold front
   over the TN and OH Valleys will move east across the Appalachians
   while a stationary front over the Mid-Atlantic states serves as a
   north delimiter for a seasonably warm/humid airmass over the
   Carolinas and much of VA.  Thunderstorms are forecast to develop
   near the front over the central Appalachians during peak heating. 
   However, a moist profile with relatively poor lapse rates will limit
   thunderstorm intensity.  The stronger mid- to high-level flow will
   likely glance the northern portion of the Mid-Atlantic states and be
   relatively displaced from stronger buoyancy located to the south. 
   As a result, general thunderstorms are expected but a localized
   strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the afternoon over
   mainly parts of VA/WV.

   ..Smith/Leitman.. 10/11/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z