Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 110534
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No organized severe thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous
United States today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the Great Lakes this morning will weaken as
it moves into southern New England during the period. A cold front
over the TN and OH Valleys will move east across the Appalachians
while a stationary front over the Mid-Atlantic states serves as a
north delimiter for a seasonably warm/humid airmass over the
Carolinas and much of VA. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop
near the front over the central Appalachians during peak heating.
However, a moist profile with relatively poor lapse rates will limit
thunderstorm intensity. The stronger mid- to high-level flow will
likely glance the northern portion of the Mid-Atlantic states and be
relatively displaced from stronger buoyancy located to the south.
As a result, general thunderstorms are expected but a localized
strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the afternoon over
mainly parts of VA/WV.
..Smith/Leitman.. 10/11/2017
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z