SPC AC 131954

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

   Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No severe thunderstorms are forecast today.

   ...Discussion...
   Only minor adjustments have been made to the ongoing general
   thunderstorm areas. A few stronger storms may develop late this
   evening into tonight across the southern High Plains, and a few of
   these storms may be capable of gusty winds and small hail. However,
   the threat of severe weather still appears too small for Marginal
   probabilities.

   ..Picca.. 10/13/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

   ...IA/Northern IL...
   Isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring late this morning along
   a weak warm front extending from eastern IA into WI.  This activity
   may persist for another couple of hours, but is moving into a more
   stable air mass.  While hail is possible in the strongest cells, the
   risk of 1" and larger hail seems low.

   The surface cold front will continue to sweep eastward across IA
   through the day, with scattered post-frontal showers and occasional
   thunderstorms being common.  12z CAM guidance does not provide much
   confidence in robust thunderstorms in this elevated regime. 
   Therefore, have removed the severe hail probabilities.

   ...TX Panhandle/southwest KS/northwest OK...
   A cold front will sag southward across the central/southern High
   Plains today, providing the focus for scattered evening
   thunderstorms over eastern NM into west TX.  Most of these storms
   will likely occur near/after dark, and in a region only marginally
   favorable for strong up/downdrafts.  Given the low confidence of
   thunderstorm coverage, and limited conditional risk of severe
   storms, have opted to remove severe probabilities.

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