Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 160445
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over a portion of the Southeast
States Monday. No severe weather is expected.
...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving through Quebec will continue
northeastward through Canadian Maritime provinces while another
shortwave follows quickly in its wake across the OH Valley and
Northeast. Strong forcing for ascent is expected with this second
shortwave trough but the lack of instability within the cool and dry
post-frontal airmass in place across the OH Valley and Northeast
will preclude any deep convection.
Farther south (from the mid-Atlantic southward in FL), southeastward
progressing cold front will encounter a moderately moist and
modestly unstable airmass supportive of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Weak vertical shear will keep the probability of
severe thunderstorms very low.
Stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS as
high surface pressure shifts from the Plains into the MS Valley and
a surface high over the Great Basin remains in place.
..Mosier/Elliott.. 10/16/2017
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