Oct 16, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 16 04:45:38 UTC 2017 (20171016 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171016 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171016 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171016 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171016 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171016 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 160445

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible over a portion of the Southeast
   States Monday. No severe weather is expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   Shortwave trough currently moving through Quebec will continue
   northeastward through Canadian Maritime provinces while another
   shortwave follows quickly in its wake across the OH Valley and
   Northeast. Strong forcing for ascent is expected with this second
   shortwave trough but the lack of instability within the cool and dry
   post-frontal airmass in place across the OH Valley and Northeast
   will preclude any deep convection. 

   Farther south (from the mid-Atlantic southward in FL), southeastward
   progressing cold front will encounter a moderately moist and
   modestly unstable airmass supportive of isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms. Weak vertical shear will keep the probability of
   severe thunderstorms very low. 

   Stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS as
   high surface pressure shifts from the Plains into the MS Valley and
   a surface high over the Great Basin remains in place.

   ..Mosier/Elliott.. 10/16/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z