Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 250453
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may impact eastern portions of southern New England
today but no severe weather is anticipated.
...Synopsis...
Deep upper trough extending from the Hudson Bay southward to the
central Gulf Coast will be in place at the beginning of the period.
A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to move through this upper
trough. The lead shortwave will pivot from the Southeast
northeastward to off the Mid-Atlantic coast while the second
shortwave progresses from the upper MS Valley into the TN Valley.
Overall progression of these two shortwaves will encourage slight
eastward progress of the parent upper trough as well as some modest
deamplification. Another strong shortwave trough is expected to move
from central Alberta through the northern Plains.
At the surface, frontal zone initially extending from the northern
VT/NH border southward through central Long Island will move only
slightly eastward throughout the period. Occluded low over the upper
Great Lakes will drift northeastward while continuing to fill. Low
attendant to the Alberta shortwave trough will deepen as it moves
across the northern Rockies.
...Southern New England...
Very moist airmass (i.e. precipitable water values around 1.75
inches) will remain over the region ahead of the slowly moving cold
front. Instability will be limited by these moist profiles and
resultant poor lapse rates. Mid-level winds across the region will
remain strong throughout the period but low-level wind fields will
gradually weaken as the low-level jet shifts eastward and the
surface pressure gradient relaxes. Large-scale forcing for ascent
will be limited until the early afternoon when a modest increase in
lift is anticipated as the region becomes more favorable located
beneath the upper jet and the upper trough approaches from the west.
Even so, slight eastward progression of the cold front will have
likely pushed the best low-level moisture offshore. This
dissociation between the best low-level moisture and best lift will
result in generally weak updrafts and the probability of updrafts
strong enough to produce severe weather is expected to remain very
low.
..Mosier/Cook.. 10/25/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
| 
)
