Nov 29, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 29 19:36:37 UTC 2017 (20171129 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171129 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171129 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171129 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171129 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171129 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 291936

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017

   Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across south
   Florida.

   ...Discussion...
   No change has been made to the previous outlook.

   ..Smith.. 11/29/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2017/

   ...South FL...
   Scattered showers are ongoing along the Atlantic Coast amid a weak
   perturbation in the low-level easterlies. With further heating
   downstream, some of this activity may deepen into isolated
   thunderstorms as convection spreads west-southwest across the
   southern peninsula. Modest mid/upper lapse rates will support only
   thin/weak buoyancy and overall coverage/intensity will be limited.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z