Dec 25, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 25 12:13:39 UTC 2017 (20171225 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171225 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171225 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171225 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171225 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171225 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 251213

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0613 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017

   Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few lightning strikes may occur within lake effect snow bands
   downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Additionally, thundersnow will
   be possible across coastal Maine through early afternoon.

   ...Discussion...

   Broad, cyclonic midlevel flow will maintain a generally cool/cold,
   stable airmass across much of the northern and eastern United
   States. Cold-air advection across the Great Lakes will support lake
   effect snows, which may yield a few lightning strikes within the
   shallow convection downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Additionally,
   as a deepening cyclone moves northeast from near Cape Cod toward the
   Canadian maritime provinces today, thundersnow may occur across
   coastal Maine. See Mesoscale Discussion #1810 for more information
   about this thundersnow potential.

   ..Marsh.. 12/25/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z