SPC AC 090455

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 PM CST Sun Jan 08 2017

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening and overnight
   across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Isolated
   weak thunderstorms are also possible across northern California and
   coastal Oregon.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An intense shortwave trough will move quickly from the northern and
   central Plains across the Upper MS Valley during the day, continuing
   across eastern Ontario Tuesday night. At the surface, low pressure
   will deepen as it moves from the Upper MS Valley Tuesday morning
   into southern Ontario by 00Z Wednesday, with a cold front trailing
   southwestward toward the Arklatex. Ahead of the front, low-level
   moisture will increase into the 50s to lower 60s, but much of this
   will be skin layer, with MLCAPE values quite low and capped during
   the day. Warm advection with strong southwesterly 850 mb flow may
   yield late day and overnight elevated thunderstorms from AR into the
   OH Valley, but overall coverage is expected to be minimal. Strongly
   forced shallow convection, perhaps without lightning, is possible
   across parts of the Midwest with locally gusty winds.

   To the west, another shortwave trough will move into northern CA
   Tuesday night, with strong cooling aloft and lift in association
   with the left exit region of the upper jet. Although wind profiles
   will be strongly veering with height, instability will be minimal,
   and severe weather is not expected. However, strong wind gusts are
   likely especially in the higher terrain.

   ..Jewell.. 01/09/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z