Feb 6, 2017 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 6 07:52:12 UTC 2017 (20170206 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170206 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170206 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 153,543 21,810,319 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Cincinnati, OH...
MARGINAL 138,223 15,812,298 Atlanta, GA...Fort Wayne, IN...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170206 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 153,287 21,785,431 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Cincinnati, OH...
5 % 138,041 15,816,928 Atlanta, GA...Fort Wayne, IN...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...
   SPC AC 060752

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2017

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH VALLEY
   AREA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE OVER LAKE HURON

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to affect the mid
   Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley areas and central Gulf Coast
   States, and later spreading eastward across the Appalachians. 
   Isolated strong/locally severe storms will be possible mainly west
   of the mountains.

   ...Synopsis...
   Fast/low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft will prevail Day 2/Tuesday
   across much of the country.  Several smaller scale vorticity maxima
   embedded within the flow (comprising the broader troughing moving
   across the eastern half of the country) will be associated with the
   main area of convective risk this period.

   At the surface, a low initially over the northern IL vicinity,
   should deepen steadily while shifting northeast across the Great
   Lakes region through the afternoon and evening, and then into
   western Quebec late.  A trailing northeast-to-southwest cold front
   is progged to shift southeast across the OH/mid MS/TN Valleys, and
   as far east as the Northeast/New England overnight.

   ...Ohio/mid and lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and vicinity...
   A complex scenario remains evident across the Day 2 risk area, with
   successive model runs continuing to trend farther north with the
   surface low and associated cold frontal progression with time. 
   Further complicating the scenario will be a lead short-wave trough
   progged to shift into/across the risk area during the late morning
   and afternoon hours.  

   At this time, it would appear that to main rounds of convection may
   occur -- one ongoing early in the period which should shift
   gradually eastward across the risk area through the afternoon and
   evening, followed by some convective redevelopment across the OH and
   TN Valley area overnight as the cold front advances southeastward
   across this region.  

   While overall strength of the flow aloft across the region will
   support shear sufficient for organized storms, degree of instability
   remains questionable due to persistent/widespread convection and
   cloud cover.  Coverage of stronger cells, as well as mode, also
   remains a question -- particularly during the first round of
   convection crossing the area given the lack of a larger-scale
   surface focus for storm development.  Thus, while the scenario
   remains nebulous with respect to the details, locally gusty/damaging
   winds will likely be the main risk with stronger storms, though
   marginal hail and even a tornado or two may also occur.

   ..Goss.. 02/06/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z