SPC AC 060752
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2017
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH VALLEY
AREA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE OVER LAKE HURON
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to affect the mid
Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley areas and central Gulf Coast
States, and later spreading eastward across the Appalachians.
Isolated strong/locally severe storms will be possible mainly west
of the mountains.
Fast/low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft will prevail Day 2/Tuesday
across much of the country. Several smaller scale vorticity maxima
embedded within the flow (comprising the broader troughing moving
across the eastern half of the country) will be associated with the
main area of convective risk this period.
At the surface, a low initially over the northern IL vicinity,
should deepen steadily while shifting northeast across the Great
Lakes region through the afternoon and evening, and then into
western Quebec late. A trailing northeast-to-southwest cold front
is progged to shift southeast across the OH/mid MS/TN Valleys, and
as far east as the Northeast/New England overnight.
...Ohio/mid and lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and vicinity...
A complex scenario remains evident across the Day 2 risk area, with
successive model runs continuing to trend farther north with the
surface low and associated cold frontal progression with time.
Further complicating the scenario will be a lead short-wave trough
progged to shift into/across the risk area during the late morning
and afternoon hours.
At this time, it would appear that to main rounds of convection may
occur -- one ongoing early in the period which should shift
gradually eastward across the risk area through the afternoon and
evening, followed by some convective redevelopment across the OH and
TN Valley area overnight as the cold front advances southeastward
across this region.
While overall strength of the flow aloft across the region will
support shear sufficient for organized storms, degree of instability
remains questionable due to persistent/widespread convection and
cloud cover. Coverage of stronger cells, as well as mode, also
remains a question -- particularly during the first round of
convection crossing the area given the lack of a larger-scale
surface focus for storm development. Thus, while the scenario
remains nebulous with respect to the details, locally gusty/damaging
winds will likely be the main risk with stronger storms, though
marginal hail and even a tornado or two may also occur.
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z