SPC AC 101703

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2017

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday into Saturday
   night across portions of the Desert Southwest. Severe thunderstorms
   are not expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   Confluent/fast mid-level flow will persist from the mid/upper
   Mississippi Valley eastward to New England on Saturday. Farther
   south, sub-tropical ridging will continue to influence much of the
   Gulf Coast. Across the west, one impulse will translate across the
   northern high Plains, while another over California will gradually
   evolve into a closed low as it approaches the lower Colorado Valley.

   At the surface, modest low-level moisture will return northward
   across the southern Plains, in response to southerly flow on the
   western edge of a high anchored off the southeast US coast. Across
   the southern Great Basin, a front will gradually progress southeast,
   as a ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest.

   ...Desert Southwest...
   As the aforementioned California impulse approaches the region late
   in the day, increasing DCVA will steepen mid-level lapse rates. In
   combination with upslope/orographic influences, this forcing for
   ascent should encourage the development of showers and a few
   thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into the overnight, with the
   highest potential likely across northwestern Arizona.

   ..Picca/Kerr.. 02/10/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z