SPC AC 060651

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX TO
   THE ARK-LA-MISS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong/severe storms will be possible Tuesday from east
   Texas to the Ark-La-Miss and vicinity.

   ...Ark-La-Miss to east Texas during the day...
   A pronounced mid-upper trough now progressing inland over the Great
   Basin will continue generally eastward to the central/northern
   Plains by tonight and then the Great Lakes and OH Valley by Tuesday.
   An associated cold front will move to near the Appalachians by
   Tuesday evening, and gradually slow in its southeastward motion by
   early Wednesday across the Gulf states.  Moisture return ahead of
   the cold front is already underway across the northwest Gulf and
   southern Plains, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s
   already present across southeast TX.  This moist boundary layer will
   likely be maintained from TX to the lower MS Valley ahead of the
   cold front Tuesday, which will combine with daytime heating to
   support potentially moderate buoyancy in the warm sector.

   Convection will likely be ongoing along the front at the beginning
   of the period from extreme northeast TX to western TN/KY. 
   Additional storm development or maintenance of the ongoing storms is
   more probable from the Mid-South into east TX where buoyancy will be
   stronger during the day within the right entrance region of the
   upper jet.  Vertical shear will be sufficient for organized line
   segments and supercells early in the period, but should decrease by
   late afternoon as the primary synoptic wave moves away to the
   northeast.  Isolated strong/damaging winds, and perhaps marginally
   severe hail, will be the main concerns through the afternoon.

   ...Upper MS Valley Tuesday afternoon...
   There will be a low-probability risk for low-topped thunderstorms
   Tuesday afternoon along the path of the primary synoptic wave across
   northern IA/southern MN into WI.  Low-level moisture will be quite
   limited, but steep lapse rates and daytime heating could drive
   sufficient buoyancy for weak convection with a few lightning
   flashes.  Steep low-level lapse rates could aid downward momentum
   transfer, though any strong/damaging wind risk appears too marginal
   for an outlook area at this time.

   ..Thompson.. 03/06/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z