SPC AC 031736

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL/EASTERN OK TO THE OZARKS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
   south central Plains into the Ozarks Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
   night, and across parts of the central Gulf Coast states late
   Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

   ...Synopsis...
   As one shortwave trough over the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic moves
   northeastward across New England, another shortwave trough across
   the central/southern Rockies will develop eastward over the
   central/southern Plains through Tuesday evening. At the surface, a
   low initially centered across the southern High Plains will develop
   northeastward towards the Ozarks while deepening through the period.
   A separate surface low over the eastern Great Lakes region will move
   northeastward into Canada, while an associated cold front moves off
   the East Coast and into the western Atlantic. The front will stall
   over the northern Gulf of Mexico and lift northward as a warm front
   late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

   ...South Central Plains into the Ozarks...
   Due to a prior frontal passage, low-level moisture will remain
   limited across much of the central/southern Plains though Tuesday
   evening. Regardless, steepening mid-level lapse rates and
   strengthening low and mid-level winds associated with the shortwave
   trough approaching from the west will foster a sufficient
   combination of instability and effective shear to support supercells
   structure across this region Tuesday afternoon/evening. The best
   chance for surface-based development should be across mainly eastern
   OK into southeastern KS, southwestern MO, and perhaps western AR
   ahead of the deepening surface low and attendant eastward-moving
   cold front. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main
   threats, with a lessening of the overall severe threat expected with
   eastward extent into central MO/AR Tuesday evening due to
   increasingly marginal instability.

   ...Central Gulf Coast States...
   As low-level mass response occurs ahead of the central/southern
   Plains shortwave trough, a warm front will lift northward across the
   central Gulf Coast States late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
   morning. Forecast soundings suggest any thunderstorms that occur
   along and south of the warm front may be surface based due to rich
   low-level moisture present across the northern Gulf streaming
   northward. A strengthening wind profile would conditionally support
   supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards, including
   isolated tornadoes. Although convective precipitation coverage in
   latest guidance are mixed regarding this potential, there is enough
   of a signal to increase severe probabilities to Slight Risk.

   ..Gleason.. 04/03/2017

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