SPC AC 060448

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2017

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHERN NJ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms with some severe potential are expected
   across the Middle Atlantic Monday. Isolated strong to severe storms
   may develop south into the southern Appalachians.

   ...Middle Atlantic/Carolinas...

   Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the OH Valley into
   the Middle Atlantic region Monday ahead of a short-wave trough that
   will progress to a position from the Hudson Valley into eastern PA
   by 08/12z. Southern extent of strong 500mb flow (on the order of
   50kt) will extend into the Delmarva region which is expected to
   induce surface cyclogenesis that will translate off the Middle
   Atlantic coast into southern New England during the overnight hours.
   00z NAM guidance is quite aggressive with this feature with strong
   shear expected to develop across the Middle Atlantic ahead of
   associated cold front. Forecast soundings across this region exhibit
   strong warm advection profiles with 50kt flow developing as low as
   850mb. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front at daybreak
   Monday with extensive clouds/precip expected to inhibit boundary
   layer heating across this region. As a result, weak buoyancy and
   poor mid-level lapse rates (5.5C/km) will likely prove detrimental
   to updraft strength for storms that develop across this region. Even
   so, strongly sheared storms could certainly produce isolated
   damaging winds, especially if breaks can develop across the warm
   sector allowing for some surface heating.

   ..Darrow.. 08/06/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z