Garden City, KS...Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...Lamar, CO...
MARGINAL
113,977
5,717,269
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
36,412
223,311
Garden City, KS...Hays, KS...Great Bend, KS...Lamar, CO...
5 %
114,089
5,703,257
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...
SPC AC 090546
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will affect a large area of the United
States on Thursday. A chance for isolated large hail and a few
damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central
Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe
thunderstorms could also affect parts of the southern High Plains as
well.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move across the upper Mississippi Valley
on Thursday with a secondary shortwave trough extending
southwestward into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southward into the central Plains. South of the front,
surface dewpoints in the 60s F will likely result in a pocket of
moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to
develop along the front and move south-southeastward into the
stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening.
Forecast soundings at 00Z/Friday from far eastern Colorado into
central Kansas show 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 kt range suggesting
supercells will be possible. The shear combined with steep mid-level
lapse rates would support an isolated severe threat especially with
rotating storms. MCS formation could also occur which would make
isolated wind damage a possibility as well with the faster moving
line segments. Have introduced a small slight risk from eastern
Colorado into central Kansas along the axis where severe weather
parameters are maximized.
..Broyles.. 08/09/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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