SPC AC 271709

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
   TX COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE COASTAL PLAIN OF TX INTO SOUTHERN LA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some tornado threat should persist through Monday across the middle
   and upper Texas coastal plain region, and perhaps into portions of
   southern Louisiana associated with Harvey.

   ...Harvey...

   Latest short-range model guidance continues to suggest Harvey will
   meander about the coastal plain of TX with a slow southeast movement
   possible into the day2 period. If Harvey shifts a bit southeast it
   will become increasingly difficult for strong buoyancy to develop
   very far inland as an expansive precip shield should hold across
   immediate interior regions. Will maintain 5% severe probs for a few
   tornadoes, especially across the upper TX coast where greatest
   corridor of instability is expected to overlap with more favorable
   shear. Reference NHC for more information on Harvey.

   ...Southeast Coast...

   12z model guidance suggest a weak surface low will drift across the
   northern FL Peninsula off the GA coast by 28/12z. Short-range
   guidance is fairly consistent with this feature ejecting northeast,
   just offshore, perhaps skirting the Outer Banks region of NC toward
   the end of the period. While this feature may strengthen during the
   latter half of the period it appears buoyancy will be quite limited
   along the Carolina coast and the probability for severe in
   association with this developing system should remain low given the
   forecast shear profiles. Reference NHC for more information
   regarding this evolving system.

   ..Darrow.. 08/27/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z