SPC AC 021705

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2017

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday. However,
   a few strong storms are possible over eastern New Mexico.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge will shift from the Northeast into the Mid Atlantic,
   extending southwestward into the southern Plains where heights will
   be rising behind a shortwave trough to the north. This trough will
   quickly deamplify across the northern Plains into the upper
   Mississippi Valley, with a cold front shifting into the upper Great
   Lakes and extending southwestward into the southern High Plains. Mid
   to upper 60s dewpoints will prevail over the southern Plains, south
   of the front. A large area of high pressure will remain situated
   over much of the east and over the western Atlantic with broad zone
   of moist easterly winds from Florida across the Gulf of Mexico and
   into Plains.

   ...Southern High Plains northeastward across the Central Plains...
   Moist easterly upslope flow will develop into eastern New Mexico
   with weak lift due to terrain influences as well as the front over
   northeastern New Mexico. Isolated late afternoon storms are
   expected, but nothing very organized as temperatures aloft will be
   warming and low-level flow will be weak. While a marginally severe
   storm with hail cannot be ruled out, the threat appears too low to
   upgrade at this time.

   Farther north, storms will gradually develop mainly during the
   evening from Kansas into Wisconsin due to glancing warm advection
   near the boundary. Lift will be weak, but the moist and unstable air
   mass will at least result in thunderstorms and rain.

   ..Jewell.. 10/02/2017

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