SPC AC 061649
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2017
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.
Mid-level flow will remain strongly confluent across much of North
America, with sharp positively tilted large-scale troughing
extending along an axis from the Great Lakes into the northern
Mexican Plateau, downstream of prominent ridging along the U.S.
Pacific coast northward through western Canada. This regime appears
likely to maintain generally dry and/or stable conditions across all
but perhaps portions of the Southeast, with minimal potential for
A low-level frontal zone is expected to remain quasi-stationary
along the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, off the south
Atlantic coast, across northern Florida into the central Gulf of
Mexico. Models do suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become
characterized by at least weak conditional instability, both south
of the front (across parts of the central and southern Florida
peninsula), and perhaps within a corridor above/to the cool side of
the surface front (roughly across the Florida panhandle and adjacent
Gulf coastal areas into the South Carolina coastal plain). The
extent to which this becomes conducive to convection capable of
producing lightning remains a bit unclear. However, in either case,
probabilities for thunderstorms still appear low, and generally less
than the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunderstorm
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