SPC AC 251722
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm threat is negligible Tuesday.
...Discussion...
Broad northwesterly flow will continue through Tuesday which will
encourage another reinforcing continental air mass to settle into
the Midwest. Meanwhile, a lobe of vorticity that likely emanated
from a mid-upper level cyclone centered southwest of southern Baja
is expected to track east from northern Mexico through the northern
Gulf of Mexico during Day 2.
...Northwest Gulf Coast...
The western extent of a cold front that moved into the southern Gulf
Basin today will be advancing northward into the northwest Gulf on
Tuesday. Weak forcing for ascent attendant to the northern Mexico
vorticity lobe should aid in an area of low pressure tracking
northeast off the southern and middle TX Coast to south of LA by 12Z
Wednesday. This front will mark the poleward return of modified
Gulf moisture, while southerly low-level flow/warm advection is
expected to encourage convective development. A stable environment
over inland areas, north of the front, will preclude thunderstorm
development. A greater potential for some thunderstorm occurrence
should be found over the northwest Gulf, where greater moisture will
support buoyancy sufficiently deep for thunderstorms.
...Great Lakes...
Steep low-level lapse rates, on the order of 7-8 C/km through 3km,
are expected to extend from eastern Lake Superior, across Lake Huron
to Lake Ontario. Models maintain this thermodynamic environment
suggesting lake convection will be likely along this corridor and an
isolated lightning strike can not be ruled out. However,
probabilities are less than 10% with these snow bands.
..Peters.. 12/25/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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