SPC AC 050826
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2017
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND VICINITY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to affect the mid
Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley areas, and later spreading
eastward across the Appalachians. Isolated strong/locally severe
storms will be possible mainly west of the mountains.
Progression of low-amplitude upper short-wave troughing across the
eastern half of the country is expected Day 3, with an associated
surface low forecast to deepen gradually as it shifts northeastward
from the IL/IN vicinity early, across the Great Lakes and eventually
to the Ottawa River Valley area late. As the low progresses, a
trailing cold front will shift east across the Midwest and
eventually the Appalachians, and southeast into the central Gulf
coastal states by the end of the period. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will accompany this storm system.
...Mid MS/OH/TN Valleys and vicinity...
A complex scenario remains evident for Day 3/Tuesday, with model
differences still evident and corresponding low confidence with
respect to forecast details of convective mode/intensity/evolution
ahead of the advancing cold front.
Showers and scattered storms (and possibly local/low-end severe
risk) should be ongoing at the start of the period, and should
continue through the day in many areas. This suggests that
potential for diurnal destabilization will be limited across much of
the region. Still, advance of the upper system and associated
surface cold front should support some potential for intensification
of storms during the afternoon, aided by favorably strong flow
aloft. Greatest severe risk at this time -- largely in the form of
gusty/damaging winds -- appears likely to exist from the mid Ohio
Valley southward across the Tennessee Valley. Threat should
diminish during the evening across northern parts of the risk area
as storms cross the Ohio Valley. Convection -- and some severe risk
-- may linger farther south, as the front settles southward into the
central Gulf Coast States overnight.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z