SPC AC 130819

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the
   southeast U.S. Wednesday, with a few severe storms possible from
   southern parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina southward
   across Florida.

   ...Synopsis...
   Large-scale ridging aloft is forecast to persist across western
   North America Day 3/Wednesday, while an eastern U.S. trough
   continues moving slowly eastward.  A smaller/southern-stream wave
   will cross the central Gulf coastal region early in the period, and
   continue to become absorbed within the larger-scale northern-stream
   troughing over the East.

   At the surface, high pressure is progged to affect much of the
   country, though lee troughing in the vicinity of the High Plains is
   forecast to persist/drift east through the period.  Otherwise, a low
   associated with the weakening southern-stream perturbation will
   cross the southeast U.S. during the day, while a trailing cold front
   shifts across the western and central Gulf of Mexico, and eventually
   southeastward across much of Florida through the end of the period.

   ...The Southeast...
   Largely elevated showers and a few thunderstorms are progged to be
   ongoing at the start of the period, with any surface-based storms
   likely confined to the southern AL/FL Panhandle vicinity.  As the
   surface low moves eastward across the area through the day (the
   timing of which differs fairly substantially amongst the different
   models), limited surface-based severe potential should spread across
   southern GA and possibly southern SC.  All severe hazards appear
   possible, though risk appears limited overall at this time.

   Farther south into the Florida Peninsula, severe risk should
   increase into the evening/overnight, as the cold front shifts
   southward.  While somewhat veered boundary-layer flow ahead of the
   front is expected, limiting low-level veering/shear to some degree,
   low-end threat for all-hazard severe weather is expected to linger
   until frontal passage (the timing of which being uncertain due to
   fairly substantial aforementioned model differences).

   ..Goss.. 02/13/2017

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