SPC AC 220731

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   While isolated strong storms with gusty winds are possible over
   portions of the Gulf Coast states Saturday, organized severe storms
   are not expected.

   ...Synopsis...

   Synoptic pattern will become dominated by an upper trough over the
   eastern two thirds of the country with an upper ridge extending from
   the southwest states into the Pacific Northwest. A cold front will
   move off the Atlantic seaboard early in the period, but the
   southwestern extension of this boundary will stall from the
   Southeast States into the southern Plains. 

   ...Southeast States through the southern Plains...

   Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop along and south of the
   stalled front where the atmosphere will become moderately unstable
   during the day. Weak winds aloft and weak vertical shear will
   promote pulse and multicell storms. Though organized storms are not
   expected, a few wet downbursts will be possible through early
   evening. Have introduced a marginal area over a portion of the
   Carolinas where winds aloft will be somewhat stronger along the
   southern periphery of the upper trough and potential for greater
   destabilization exists.

   ...Southern Rockies...

   Steep mid-level lapse rates and diabatic heating over the higher
   terrain will contribute to potential for a few thunderstorms to
   develop over the southern Rockies. This region will reside along the
   southern fringe of moderate northwesterly winds aloft with
   sufficient shear for a few storms to develop mid-level updraft
   rotation. Storms developing in this area will have potential to
   produce downburst winds and marginally severe hail. 

   ...Mid Atlantic area...

   Convection may be ongoing early Saturday over portion of VA into MD
   in association with remnants of Cindy that will be extratropical by
   that time. While this activity will be embedded within strong wind
   fields, very weak instability should limit an organized severe
   threat.

   ..Dial.. 06/22/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z