Jan 12, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 12 16:23:11 UTC 2018 (20180112 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180112 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180112 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 41,929 6,285,442 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180112 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 42,074 6,282,375 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180112 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 41,648 6,181,645 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180112 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 121623

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1023 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

   Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
   CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   At least a marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
   will exist mainly across the eastern coastal Carolinas to southeast
   Virginia this evening. Primary risks are a few strong to damaging
   wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado.

   ...Eastern Carolinas through southeast Virginia...

   Morning RAOB data indicate very weak instability (MUCAPE below 500
   J/kg) with near moist adiabatic lapse rates in this area. Scattered
   low-topped convection should persist in weakly capped warm sector
   this afternoon, but other than potential for weak updraft rotation,
   this activity should remain below severe levels. Slightly better
   chance for a more organized severe threat might evolve this evening
   as the shortwave trough over the lower MS Valley ejects northeast
   toward the Carolinas. Deep-layer winds and vertical shear will
   strengthen over the Middle Atlantic region in association with this
   feature. Storms may increase along pre-frontal convergence bands
   from the eastern Carolinas into Southeast VA this evening where
   influx of 65-67 F near-surface dewpoints will support slightly
   greater (300-500 J/kg) MLCAPE. A few bowing segments and marginal
   supercell structures will be possible with some threat for locally
   strong to damaging wind gusts and maybe a brief tornado. Overall
   threat is expected to remain limited by the marginal thermodynamic
   environment.

   ..Dial/Cook.. 01/12/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z