Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
42,074
6,282,375
Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
41,648
6,181,645
Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 121623
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
At least a marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
will exist mainly across the eastern coastal Carolinas to southeast
Virginia this evening. Primary risks are a few strong to damaging
wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado.
...Eastern Carolinas through southeast Virginia...
Morning RAOB data indicate very weak instability (MUCAPE below 500
J/kg) with near moist adiabatic lapse rates in this area. Scattered
low-topped convection should persist in weakly capped warm sector
this afternoon, but other than potential for weak updraft rotation,
this activity should remain below severe levels. Slightly better
chance for a more organized severe threat might evolve this evening
as the shortwave trough over the lower MS Valley ejects northeast
toward the Carolinas. Deep-layer winds and vertical shear will
strengthen over the Middle Atlantic region in association with this
feature. Storms may increase along pre-frontal convergence bands
from the eastern Carolinas into Southeast VA this evening where
influx of 65-67 F near-surface dewpoints will support slightly
greater (300-500 J/kg) MLCAPE. A few bowing segments and marginal
supercell structures will be possible with some threat for locally
strong to damaging wind gusts and maybe a brief tornado. Overall
threat is expected to remain limited by the marginal thermodynamic
environment.
..Dial/Cook.. 01/12/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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