Jan 19, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 19 16:13:39 UTC 2018 (20180119 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180119 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180119 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180119 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180119 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180119 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 191613

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

   Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Texas and central
   California coasts.

   ...Synopsis...
   A weak midlevel trough will continue to drift eastward near the
   northwest Gulf coast.  Though the weakly unstable warm sector and
   the majority of the deep convection remains offshore, weak midlevel
   buoyancy does extend inland over the TX coastal plain per the 12z
   sounding at Corpus Christi.  Low-level warm advection should
   maintain some weak midlevel convection, and the potential for
   isolated lightning strikes, through early afternoon.

   Otherwise, an upstream shortwave trough is progressing
   east-southeastward toward CA.  Low-topped convection accompanies the
   midlevel thermal trough per satellite imagery, and a few lightning
   flashes have been detected off the central CA coast as of 16z.  Weak
   surface-based buoyancy will reach the immediate central CA coast
   later today in conjunction with the steeper low-midlevel lapse
   rates, though thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, at best.

   ..Thompson/Gleason.. 01/19/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z