Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 201254
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm areas are not expected today and tonight over the
contiguous U.S.
...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a pronounced, progressive split-flow pattern
will cover western North America this period. The southern stream
of that split will be dominated by a strong shortwave trough now
apparent in moisture-channel imagery from western NV south-
southwestward over the CA Channel Islands and well offshore from
northern Baja. This trough will move eastward to western portions
of CO/NM through the period, with a weak/embedded 500-mb low
possibly forming and moving eastward generally across the Four
Corners.
A somewhat overlapping zone of elevated warm advection, low/middle-
level frontal forcing and DCVA-steepened midlevel lapse rates is
expected to precede the mid/upper trough this afternoon and tonight
-- from the Colorado Plateau of northern AZ/southern UT eastward
across the Four Corners to the southern Rockies. Very isolated
thunder cannot be ruled out in this regime. However, buoyancy
appears too meager to support an area of thunder probabilities at
least 10%.
Elsewhere, instability and lift should be too weak to support inland
thunder associated with a much weaker mid/upper trough crossing the
Gulf Coast States and northern Gulf.
..Edwards/Broyles.. 01/20/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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