Jan 31, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 31 05:11:17 UTC 2018 (20180131 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180131 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180131 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180131 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180131 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180131 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 310511

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1111 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2018

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm potential is very low across the contiguous United
   States Wednesday.

   ...Discussion...

   Semi-persistent large-scale northwesterly flow will continue across
   the CONUS Wednesday. Resultant seasonally low precipitable water
   values, and the lack of meaningful instability, will preclude deep
   convection capable of generating lightning.

   ..Darrow.. 01/31/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z