Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 031948
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2018
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected across the lower Mississippi Valley and
adjoining Gulf Coast region, mainly this evening and overnight.
...Discussion...
The current outlook area and associated forecast reasoning appears
to accurately depict the current expected evolution of the
convective scenario through the remainder of the period. As such --
with elevated thunderstorm development anticipated tonight centered
in the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, no changes are being made
to the outlook at this time.
..Goss.. 02/03/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2018/
...Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast Region...
Water vapor loop shows a significant shortwave trough tracking
southeastward across CO and into the southern Plains. Increasing
low-level warm advection and lift in advance of this system will
help to moisten/destabilize parts of the western/central Gulf Coast
region, leading to rather widespread precipitation this afternoon
and tonight. Forecast soundings suggest that a plume of elevated
CAPE will slowly increase this evening, beginning in southeast TX,
and eventually spreading into parts of LA/AR/MS/AL overnight.
Despite rather strong deep-layer shear, stable surface conditions
and only marginal CAPE values suggest that the risk of severe storms
is quite low.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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