Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 050543
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2018
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.
...Synopsis...
The broadly cyclonic mid-level flow over much of the CONUS will
sharpen slightly across the Rockies/Great Basin late Monday in
response to a strong 250-mb jet diving south across the Pacific
Northwest. Elsewhere, neutral to rising heights will exist across
most of the conterminous U.S. in the wake of a significant
shorter-wavelength mid-level trough lifting northeast towards the
Canadian Maritime Provinces. Surface high pressure will dominate
along and east of the Rockies with cold/dry conditions prevailing
during the day. By Monday night, however, low-level south/southwest
flow will become established across the lower MS Valley/Arklatex and
an increase in warm/moist advection will lead to an expanding area
of rain/showers. Forecast soundings and high-resolution guidance
generally depict shallow convection at best prior to 12Z Tuesday in
this region. While an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled
out, the overall risk appears too low to warrant a 10 percent areal
thunder delineation.
A sparse lightning strike will also be possible across portions of
western CO/southern WY Monday where an increase in large-scale
ascent/moistening will occur in the presence of steep mid-level
lapse rates. Again, the overall risk should remain very isolated.
..Bunting.. 02/05/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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