Mar 1, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 1 05:46:58 UTC 2018 (20180301 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180301 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180301 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180301 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180301 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180301 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010546

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1146 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm threat will be possible across the Gulf States into the
   Carolinas, along with portions of the Ohio Valley.

   ...Discussion...

   Significant short-wave trough over the southern High Plains will
   eject east and de-amplify as it approaches the southern Appalachians
   Thursday afternoon. This feature will be forced off the middle
   Atlantic Coast late as a strong mid-level jet digs into southern VA
   by 02/12z. With large-scale forcing for ascent forecast to focus
   across the OH Valley it appears the trailing cold front will be
   weakly forced across the Gulf States where buoyancy is expected to
   be greatest. Forecast soundings suggest a warm nose around 700mb
   which should hinder updraft strength for convection that evolves
   along the front. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to
   enhance shear across the middle Atlantic/NC region but forecast
   lapse rates are quite weak and buoyancy is not expected to be
   sufficient to warrant robust updrafts capable of generating severe
   wind/hail.

   Farther north across the OH Valley, a narrow wedge of modest
   low-level lapse rates may develop just ahead of a cold front where
   surface dew points are expected to hold in the lower 50s. It appears
   near-surface based convection could evolve across this region as
   mid-level temperatures cool within exit region of digging speed max.
   While gusty winds may accompany the strongest storms, instability
   appears inadequate given the forecast low-level lapse rates for
   severe wind gusts.

   ..Darrow/Leitman.. 03/01/2018

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