Mar 1, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 1 19:21:10 UTC 2018 (20180301 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180301 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180301 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 36,243 5,419,472 Charlotte, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Wilmington, NC...Jacksonville, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180301 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 36,311 5,446,867 Charlotte, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Wilmington, NC...Jacksonville, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180301 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 36,138 5,366,040 Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Wilmington, NC...Jacksonville, NC...Rock Hill, SC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180301 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 011921

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 PM CST Thu Mar 01 2018

   Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds will be
   possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon and early
   evening.

   ...20Z Update...
   Recent surface analysis places the primary low over western OH but a
   secondary low exists approximately 25 miles northeast of SPA on the
   NC/SC border. A cold front extends southwestward from this low into
   southern LA with primarily cellular convection along this boundary.
   As of 1915Z, no lightning has been noted within any of these cells
   and updraft strength has exhibited sporadic intensification but
   overall persistence has been minimal. Downstream airmass appears a
   bit more favorable for more sustained updrafts with temperatures
   currently in the upper 70s/low 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid
   60s. Mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 250 J/kg exists from
   central/south-central GA northeastward into central SC. This meager
   instability is expected to contribute to a modest increase in storm
   intensity as the front continues eastward. Given the strength of the
   wind fields, the risk for damaging wind gusts and an isolated QLCS
   tornado persists and the only change to the outlook was to expand
   the Marginal risk slightly southward. Refer to MCD #103 for more
   short-term forecast details.

   ..Mosier.. 03/01/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Thu Mar 01 2018/

   ...Carolinas...
   Morning radar loop shows a long-lived convective line moving across
   parts of AL/GA.  While the line shows some mesoscale organization,
   updrafts are rather weak with no lightning activity indicated for
   several hours.  Ahead of the convection, a surface warm front
   extends across northern SC and into southeast NC.  Visible satellite
   imagery suggests that heating will occur to the south of the
   boundary, leading to a corridor of MLCAPE of 500-900 J/kg.  While
   these values are marginal, forecast soundings show very strong
   westerly flow from just above the surface to the mid-levels.  A
   consensus of 12z model guidance suggests the convective line will
   move eastward along the warm front and strengthen somewhat this
   afternoon as instability increases.  This may be sufficient for a
   few robust bowing segments along the line capable of locally
   damaging wind gusts.  An isolated QLCS tornado is also possible. 
   Therefore, have re-introduced a MRGL risk area in vicinity of the
   warm front for this afternoon and evening.

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