Mar 2, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 2 00:43:39 UTC 2018 (20180302 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180302 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180302 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180302 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180302 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180302 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020043

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CST Thu Mar 01 2018

   Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will continue across parts of the Pacific
   Northwest this evening.

   ...Discussion...

   Strong short-wave trough is ejecting across the southern
   Appalachians this evening and an associated surface front has
   progressed off the Carolina coast, extending into the FL Panhandle.
   Lightning has proved sparse with frontal convection and the
   probability for thunderstorms is low along this trailing boundary
   the rest of tonight.

   Strong mid-level height falls are expected to spread inland across
   the Pacific NW along with notable diffluent flow aloft. With fairly
   steep lapse rates observed across this region there appears to be
   sufficient moisture for sporadic lightning within the stronger
   convective elements from northern CA into extreme southwest ID. 00z
   soundings from BOI/MFR/REV exhibit cloud-bearing lapse rates on the
   order of 7.5-8 C/km which is more than adequate for convection
   lingering into the evening hours.

   ..Darrow.. 03/02/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z