Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 031611
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Sat Mar 03 2018
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and
northern California today, while some thunderstorms could also
develop across Texas toward the Ark-La-Tex region tonight. Organized
severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A semi-amplified large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS,
highlighted by the eastward movement of an upper trough over the
western States.
...California...
A strong mid/upper jet will spread eastward over southern California
into the southern Rockies while an upper low and related mid-level
cold core continues to move inland over northern California toward
the Great Basin. As lapse rates continue to steepen, episodic
thunderstorms will be possible particularly across parts of northern
and central California. A few stronger pulse-type storms with small
hall could occur this afternoon in vicinity of the upper cold core
(-30 to -34C at 500 mb) from coastal northern California into parts
of the Sacramento Valley, but the potential for severe-diameter
hailstones will be mitigated by weak overall buoyancy.
...Texas toward the Ark-La-Tex...
Gradual air mass modification will occur today particularly from the
western Gulf of Mexico into Texas, with low/mid-level moisture
steadily increasing especially late tonight into parts of North
Texas and the Ark-La-Tex region. The prevalence of mid-level capping
and initially modest low-level moisture is likely to relegate the
relatively greatest potential/coverage for thunderstorms until late
tonight as warm/moist advection increases. Severe thunderstorms are
not expected.
..Guyer/Marsh.. 03/03/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z