Mar 3, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 3 16:11:54 UTC 2018 (20180303 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180303 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180303 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180303 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180303 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180303 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 031611

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1011 AM CST Sat Mar 03 2018

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and
   northern California today, while some thunderstorms could also
   develop across Texas toward the Ark-La-Tex region tonight. Organized
   severe storms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   A semi-amplified large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS,
   highlighted by the eastward movement of an upper trough over the
   western States.

   ...California...
   A strong mid/upper jet will spread eastward over southern California
   into the southern Rockies while an upper low and related mid-level
   cold core continues to move inland over northern California toward
   the Great Basin. As lapse rates continue to steepen, episodic
   thunderstorms will be possible particularly across parts of northern
   and central California. A few stronger pulse-type storms with small
   hall could occur this afternoon in vicinity of the upper cold core
   (-30 to -34C at 500 mb) from coastal northern California into parts
   of the Sacramento Valley, but the potential for severe-diameter
   hailstones will be mitigated by weak overall buoyancy. 

   ...Texas toward the Ark-La-Tex...
   Gradual air mass modification will occur today particularly from the
   western Gulf of Mexico into Texas, with low/mid-level moisture
   steadily increasing especially late tonight into parts of North
   Texas and the Ark-La-Tex region. The prevalence of mid-level capping
   and initially modest low-level moisture is likely to relegate the
   relatively greatest potential/coverage for thunderstorms until late
   tonight as warm/moist advection increases. Severe thunderstorms are
   not expected.

   ..Guyer/Marsh.. 03/03/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z