SPC AC 060544

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 PM CST Mon Mar 05 2018

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON TO WESTERN FL TONIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms this afternoon
   across part of the Florida Panhandle to a portion of the western
   Florida coastal area for mainly tonight into early Wednesday
   morning.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-upper level closed low centered over the upper Mississippi
   Valley region at 12Z today will shift east-southeast into the Great
   Lakes and Ohio Valley, while a progressive shortwave trough tracks
   through the western and southern periphery of the closed low.  This
   shortwave trough will amplify as it moves through the central Plains
   this afternoon to the southern Appalachians and Southeast states by
   12Z Wednesday, within a strengthening cyclonic flow regime.

   At the surface, an area of low pressure attendant to the closed low
   aloft will continue to occlude as it shifts east-southeast from IA
   through IL/IN today, and should be centered across OH by early
   Wednesday morning.  A weak secondary area of low pressure will shift
   east across the Southeast states, though stronger cyclogenesis is
   not expected until later tonight near the NC coastal area to
   offshore NC/VA with the approach of the amplifying shortwave trough.
   A cold front trailing southwest from the weak secondary low will
   advance east.  This boundary should extend from northeast GA through
   the FL Panhandle to the northwest Gulf of Mexico by early-mid
   afternoon, and exit the middle and southern Atlantic coast through
   central FL by 12Z Wednesday.

   ...Eastern FL Panhandle to northwest FL this afternoon...
   Despite generally weak lapse rates, moisture return /surface dew
   points in the lower-middle 60s/ into the eastern FL Panhandle this
   afternoon combined with some diabatic heating should result in
   MLCAPE of 300-600 J/kg.  This should prove sufficient to support
   some thunderstorm development as the cold front moves into this
   region during the afternoon.  Strengthening deep-layer winds with an
   expected increase in low-level hodograph curvature through the day
   suggests storm organization will be likely, though weak instability
   should limit the overall coverage of a severe-weather threat. 
   Locally strong wind gusts and a marginal tornado risk are expected
   to be the primary threats, while weak lapse rates tend to limit the
   hail potential.

   ...Portion of western FL Coastal area, mainly tonight...
   Moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico will spread across northern
   and central FL this evening through tonight with models suggesting
   at least weak instability could develop along the northern and
   central Gulf Coast areas.  A few storms developing ahead of the
   front may organize off the western FL coast and move inland with
   updraft rotation and bowing segments as deep-layer winds strengthen.
   The stronger storms could pose a marginal risk for locally strong to
   damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado.

   ..Peters/Karstens.. 03/06/2018

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