Mar 8, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 8 05:43:11 UTC 2018 (20180308 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180308 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180308 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180308 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180308 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180308 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080543

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 PM CST Wed Mar 07 2018

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears low across the country today.

   ...Discussion...
   As a series of shortwave troughs advance cyclonically around its
   periphery, a large closed mid/upper low will slowly progress from
   the Great Lakes towards New England through the period. Related to
   this evolution, a broad trough across the eastern half of the US
   will favor offshore/continental low-level trajectories today, with
   only initial/weak moisture return occurring over southern Texas late
   Thursday night. Therefore, stable conditions should preclude
   thunderstorm development east of the Rockies.

   Farther west, an impulse will de-amplify as it translates eastward
   from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies today. Cooling
   mid levels (e.g., 500mb temps around -25 C) may yield weak buoyancy
   from far eastern Oregon/Washington to the Idaho/Montana border by
   afternoon, and an isolated strike or two may occur. However,
   weakening large-scale ascent and a lack of deeper/more substantive
   instability are forecast to temper overall convective activity.

   ..Picca/Cook.. 03/08/2018

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