Pine Bluff, AR...Monroe, LA...Greenville, MS...Hot Springs, AR...Texarkana, TX...
MARGINAL
108,609
6,708,210
Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
62,848
3,053,980
Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Bossier City, LA...Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
24,677
1,212,479
Pine Bluff, AR...Monroe, LA...Greenville, MS...Hot Springs, AR...Texarkana, TX...
5 %
112,039
6,746,197
Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
19,709
941,328
Pine Bluff, AR...Greenville, MS...Hot Springs, AR...Texarkana, TX...Texarkana, AR...
5 %
85,433
5,270,750
Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Lafayette, LA...Fort Smith, AR...
SPC AC 100551
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Fri Mar 09 2018
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley, primarily Saturday
evening into the overnight.
...Synopsis...
Relatively zonal mid-level flow will be established across the
southern US today. Embedded in this flow, a series of low-amplitude
impulses will advance eastward from the southern Plains to the
Southeast. By Saturday night, a more notable, positively tilted
shortwave trough will drop southeast over the central Plains, with
an expansion of convection expected from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas (discussed in more detail below).
...Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley...
At the beginning of the period, isolated to widely scattered
convection may be ongoing near the upper Texas/Louisiana coast,
owing to modest warm advection and boundary-layer confluence coupled
with continued northward theta-e return. Most likely, the strongest
convection will be focused near/offshore the coast, with weaker
cells farther inland. Nonetheless, ample effective shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates (offering around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) may
support isolated marginally severe hail in deeper cells. Moreover,
while inland low-level destabilization will likely be stunted some
by offshore convection, near-surface stability will not be
particularly deep/strong, such that an isolated damaging gust or two
could occur.
A lull in activity may then occur during the afternoon, prior to
convection organizing across far eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas by
evening. As a secondary mid-level speed max approaches the region,
increasing warm-air advection around 850-700mb will focus
thunderstorm activity near a trough extending from Oklahoma east to
the Mississippi Valley. A residual elevated mixed layer, coupled
with robust mid/upper west/northwesterly winds, will yield a threat
for a few severe hail reports during the evening and overnight.
Additionally, relatively straight hodographs above approximately 1
km may encourage a few southeastward-accelerating bands capable of
strong/damaging winds. Lastly, despite relaxed low-level flow, a
brief tornado could occur within backed surface winds near/ahead of
a weak frontal wave advancing from the Arklatex to the Mid-South
through the overnight.
..Picca/Cook.. 03/10/2018
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