Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...West Palm Beach, FL...Jacksonville, NC...Wellington, FL...
SPC AC 201614
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL FL TO
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
Scattered to numerous severe storms are likely this afternoon with
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds from central Florida to
coastal South Carolina. This risk will end during the evening.
Isolated storms are ongoing across the north/central FL, with
scattered strong storms evident in the northeast Gulf. This offshore
activity should spread inland during the next few hours. Modified
12Z Tampa Bay and 14Z Jacksonville soundings suggest MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg is prevalent with effective shear around 50 kt.
Low/deep-layer wind profiles will strengthen with approach of the AL
shortwave trough. This should result in several supercells evolving
across the peninsula this afternoon capable of producing all
hazards. Veered surface winds along with the early afternoon timing
of storms inland should limit the potential for 10% or greater
coverage of significant severe, however a strong tornado and 2-inch
hail are possible. The severe threat will diminish during the early
evening as large-scale ascent subsides.
...Coastal Plain of GA/SC/NC...
West-east oriented trailing outflow in the wake of an early morning
MCS is evident across the central portion of the SC coast. This
demarcates the warm/moist air mass to the south with
recovery/modification occurring to its north into extreme southern
NC. While further diffusing of the outflow boundary is anticipated,
the bulk of moderate buoyancy will likely be confined to coastal SC
southward this afternoon. Scattered to numerous storms should
emanate out of ongoing cumulus field evident over southeast GA as
mid-level height falls associated with the AL shortwave trough
increase. Embedded supercells appear probable amid nearly
unidirectional wind profiles and strengthening deep-layer shear. All
hazards are anticipated mainly near the immediate coast before the
bulk of severe convection moves offshore by the early evening.
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