Storm Prediction Center Mar 21, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Mar 21, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Updated: Wed Mar 21 00:50:12 UTC 2018 (

)

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Day 1 Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic

20180321 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Tornado Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

20180321 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Wind Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

20180321 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Hail Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 210050

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

   Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A strong/marginally severe thunderstorm remains possible over south
   Florida this evening, but the risk for organized severe weather
   appears to be quite low for the remainder of the night.

   ...Discussion...
   A broken band of convection is sagging southward over south Florida
   this evening. Plentiful deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse
   rates (noted in the 00Z MFL and KEY soundings) may encourage a
   stronger cell or two, capable of marginally severe hail and gusty
   winds, for the next hour or so. However, a nocturnal increase in
   convective inhibition, coupled with cells moving away from deeper
   ascent, will continue the downward intensity trend this evening.

   Farther north, synoptic ascent along the nose of a mid-level
   vorticity max is enhancing convective development near the SC/NC
   border, and these cells will push east/northeast through the early
   overnight. Brief small hail may be possible, but organized severe
   weather is not anticipated.

   ..Picca.. 03/21/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z