Mar 22, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 22 16:29:11 UTC 2018 (20180322 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180322 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180322 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 15,885 4,362,483 Sacramento, CA...Fresno, CA...Stockton, CA...Modesto, CA...Roseville, CA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180322 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 14,945 3,904,367 Sacramento, CA...Fresno, CA...Modesto, CA...Roseville, CA...Visalia, CA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180322 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180322 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 15,434 4,093,539 Sacramento, CA...Fresno, CA...Stockton, CA...Modesto, CA...Visalia, CA...
   SPC AC 221629

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

   Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   INTERIOR VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible today across
   parts of the West. A few strong storms may occur over parts of the
   California Central Valley including the possibility of a brief
   tornado and/or some hail.

   ...California...
   An extremely moist environment remains across the region via a fetch
   of relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds to the south of
   a prominent deep/closed trough centered off the coast of the Pacific
   Northwest and British Columbia. Although clouds and scattered
   showers will tend to curb more appreciable destabilization, even
   modest cloud breaks later this afternoon into evening could allow
   for some stronger updrafts and organized storm modes in the presence
   of ample moisture and relatively strong low-level/deep-layer shear.
   A relatively well-organized quasi-linear band of showers/few
   thunderstorms has already been noted this morning across the
   northern valley to the east of Sacramento. In all, a few stronger
   storms may materialize across the southern Sacramento Valley and San
   Joaquin Valley particularly this afternoon through early evening. A
   brief tornado, hail potentially to near-severe levels, and/or gusty
   winds could occur.

   ..Guyer/Cook.. 03/22/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z