Mar 28, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 28 12:46:15 UTC 2018 (20180328 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180328 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180328 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 87,170 10,324,106 Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...
MARGINAL 64,666 4,850,554 Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...College Station, TX...Bryan, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180328 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 40,774 7,157,727 Houston, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...Sugar Land, TX...The Woodlands, TX...
2 % 71,923 4,504,224 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Shreveport, LA...Brownsville, TX...Lake Charles, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180328 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 85,660 10,301,150 Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...
5 % 62,468 4,098,400 Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...College Station, TX...Bryan, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180328 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 54,290 8,885,255 Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...
5 % 48,935 3,198,529 Shreveport, LA...College Station, TX...Lake Charles, LA...Bryan, TX...Bossier City, LA...
   SPC AC 281246

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0746 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

   Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
   FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX TO THE ARK-LA-MISS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TX TO
   PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging
   winds are possible today from parts of south and east Texas into
   parts of the Mid South.

   ...South/southeast TX to the Mid South through tonight...
   The effective cold front, reinforced by widespread overnight
   convection, has stalled today from southeast TX into northern LA.  A
   weak wave is also expected to move northeastward along the front
   from just south of CLL this morning to northern LA by late this
   evening, in response to a midlevel trough ejecting
   east-northeastward over the southern Plains through tonight. 
   Low-level mass response to the weak wave/ejecting midlevel trough
   will result in some increase in low-level shear from southeast TX
   today to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight.  Embedded surface-based
   supercells and/or QLCS mesovortices will be possible within the
   convective bands along or just south of the quasi-stationary front,
   potentially producing a few tornadoes in a moist environment with
   effective SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2.  Otherwise, the threat for
   large hail will be greater across south and southeast TX in
   proximity to the steeper midlevel lapse rates and where storms may
   occasionally remain more discrete.  A few damaging gusts will be
   possible along the convective bands, potentially as far northeast as
   northern MS and vicinity along the northeast edge of the weakly
   unstable surface warm sector into tonight.

   ..Thompson/Picca.. 03/28/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z