Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 151648
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF GA...SC...NC INTO VA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FL TO VA...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FL TO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move northeast across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States through tonight. Damaging
winds and tornadoes are most likely from the Savannah Valley into
Virginia this afternoon and early evening.
...North Florida to the Delmarva vicinity...
The base of a prominent upper trough centered over the Midwest will
continue to steadily spread northeastward over the Tennessee Valley
toward the central/southern Appalachians with ample downstream
height falls and a considerable strengthening of south-southwesterly
winds through a deep layer. Persistent cloud cover and relatively
weak mid-level level lapse rates will hinder robust destabilization,
but this will be compensated by an increasingly moist air mass in
conjunction with strengthening deep-layer/low-level shear.
At midday, a nearly continuous squall line continues to intensify
across east Georgia into north Florida while other bands of storms
have more recently increased across the western Carolinas. Largely
unidirectional/boundary-parallel wind profiles will initially limit
the eastward progression of the convective bands, but
northeastward-racing bowing segments are likely to evolve over time
with some net east/northeastward acceleration. Damaging winds will
likely be the most common impact, but some tornadoes can be expected
given the degree of low-level SRH coincident with a moist
environment. At least some severe risk may develop into the Delmarva
vicinity late tonight within a weakly unstable/highly sheared
While the region will be influenced by more modest mid-level height
falls and weaker deep-layer shear, an approaching squall line over
the Gulf of Mexico will pose some severe risk while additional
development could occur via the east-coast sea breeze. Damaging
winds will exist along with the possibility of a tornado.
Modest moisture and minimal buoyancy may be sufficient for a few
strong updrafts/downdrafts capable of localized severe in relatively
close proximity to the surface low track.
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