Apr 26, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 26 16:13:20 UTC 2018 (20180426 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180426 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180426 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 52,986 12,575,564 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...Macon, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180426 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180426 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 53,496 12,576,771 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...Macon, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180426 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 27,571 7,672,518 Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...Macon, GA...Roswell, GA...
   SPC AC 261613

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

   Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Southeast
   this afternoon and this evening.

   ...Southwest GA into western SC/NC this afternoon and evening...
   A progressive upper low over northern MS will track eastward across
   the Southeast states today.  The associated band of frontal
   precipitation is moving across eastern AL into GA, and will continue
   progressing into the western Carolinas this afternoon and evening. 
   So far, convection along this band has been weak with very little
   lightning activity or higher reflectivity noted on radar.  However,
   some heating ahead of the line may result in an uptick in
   intensities this afternoon.  Relatively weak and westerly low level
   winds should limit the overall severe threat over GA, but an
   isolated hail or damaging wind report cannot be ruled out.  Farther
   north in the Carolinas, slightly stronger vertical shear might
   result in more organization and bowing structures later today, but
   very weak thermodynamics are a limiting factor.

   ...Northern/Central GA later today...
   In the wake of this morning convective band of eastern AL/western
   GA, some potential will exists for modest destabilization under the
   upper low.  Visible and water vapor imagery shows some dry air
   moving into this region, and 12z CAM solutions indicate the
   development of scattered thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings show
   favorable vertical profiles for a few slow-moving but organized
   storms capable of small hail and gusty winds.  Current indications
   are that surface heating will be quite limited due to low clouds. 
   This should be the main limiting factor to a more robust severe
   threat.

   ..Hart/Smith.. 04/26/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z