Greensboro, NC...Springfield, MO...Fayetteville, NC...High Point, NC...Suffolk, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Greensboro, NC...Springfield, MO...Fayetteville, NC...High Point, NC...Jacksonville, NC...
SPC AC 061629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun May 06 2018
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
Isolated severe storms with hail and wind are possible late
afternoon to mid-evening over central/eastern North Carolina and far
southeast Virginia, the interior Northwest and northern Rockies, as
well as southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.
...Central/eastern NC and far southeast VA...
A shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will decay as it
progresses towards the Northeast states. A weak surface cyclone near
Greensboro should track east along the NC/VA border through this
evening. A narrow wedge of robust insolation is underway near the
surface cyclone, between the impinging cold front and widespread
cloud/stratiform rain across eastern portions of NC/VA. Weak
mid-level lapse rates sampled by 12Z soundings will limit updraft
acceleration this afternoon, but the corridor of surface heating
amid residual mid 60s surface dew points should yield MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg. Isolated to scattered storm development is likely by
mid-late afternoon. J-shaped hodographs will favor strong vertical
shear within the mid to upper portion of the thermodynamic profile
which should support a few supercells. Isolated to widely scattered
severe hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible, before
weakening after sunset.
...Southern MO/northern AR...
A series of subtle mid-upper speed maxima will move from the central
Great Plains to the Lower MS Valley atop a diffuse confluence
boundary that should sag into central OK to southern MO. Though
boundary-layer moisture is marginal, surface dew points in the lower
50s in conjunction with strong surface heating will promote
inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. Steep lapse rates above the
inverted-v will contribute to MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg in the late
afternoon. Isolated high-based storms should form by early evening
and likely evolve into a small multicell cluster or two given
effective shear of 20-30 kt. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the main hazards, before storms diminish after sunset.
...Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies...
A compact shortwave trough over the northern Sierra Nevada will
dampen as it reaches the northern Rockies tonight. Large-scale
ascent accompanying this feature will foster storm development from
eastern OR into western ID during the late afternoon. Though
low-level moisture will be limited, rather steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 500 J/kg at peak heating.
Multicell clusters are expected to develop/spread northeast across
northern ID into western MT through mid-evening. Isolated severe
wind gusts, as well as marginally severe hail will be possible until
storms weaken by late evening.
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